A Hero's Welcome — But a Wobbling Opening
James Gunn's fledgling DC Universe has its second major test this weekend, and the signs are giving Warner Bros. reason to sweat. Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow, starring Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El and directed by Craig Gillespie, opens in cinemas on Friday — but the box office buzz has cooled considerably in the days leading up to release.
Tracking numbers have shifted dramatically in recent weeks. Where early pre-sale estimates had the film eyeing a $55–60 million domestic opening weekend, industry analysts now paint a notably bleaker picture. BoxOffice Pro, BoxOfficeTheory and Puck's Matthew Belloni have all weighed in with figures ranging from as low as $39 million to as high as $58 million — a spread that, more than anything, reflects how little certainty there is around the film right now. The rough consensus has settled somewhere around $50 million.
For context, last year's Superman — the DCU's launch film starring David Corenswet — opened to $125 million domestically before going on to earn $618 million worldwide. Supergirl tracking at less than half that figure is not the trajectory Gunn and his team would have wanted for what is only the second film in their carefully constructed new universe.
'She's Got a Wall Up'
The critical picture is similarly unsettled. Social media reactions from early screenings have dropped ahead of the full embargo lift, and the consensus is broadly mixed. The consistent bright spot is Alcock herself, whose performance as the harder-edged, more emotionally scarred Kryptonian has attracted near-universal admiration. Unlike her cousin Clark Kent, Kara Zor-El grew up on a dying Krypton, watching everything she knew crumble around her — a backstory that sets her apart sharply from the sunnier Superman mythology.
"She was brought up on a planet that was dying. Everyone that she's ever known and loved is dead. So that creates a very cynical, tough… she doesn't trust a lot of people."
That emotional weight is at the heart of the film's premise, which is adapted from Tom King and Bilquis Evely's acclaimed Woman of Tomorrow comic run. Kara reluctantly teams up with young warrior Ruthye Marye Knoll, played by Eve Ridley, on an interstellar revenge mission after a brutal enemy strikes close to home. Jason Momoa also appears as fan-favourite bounty hunter Lobo, while Corenswet reprises his Superman role in what is expected to be a supporting capacity.
The villain drawing less enthusiasm is Krem of the Yellow Hills, a space pirate and trafficker played by Belgian actor Matthias Schoenaerts. Despite Schoenaerts bringing considerable physical menace to the role — director Gillespie reportedly told him to simply "wreck the room" — early reactions have flagged Krem as a weak point, with some critics finding him underdeveloped against the film's more ambitious cosmic backdrop.
The Stakes for Gunn's DCU
The pressure on Supergirl extends well beyond its own opening weekend. Gunn hand-picked the film's screenplay, written by Ana Nogueira, and was sufficiently impressed that he then brought Nogueira on board to write the upcoming Wonder Woman film — a significant vote of confidence that makes any disappointment here a more complex story to tell.
The wider DCU slate is already in motion. A horror-inflected Clayface film, co-written by The Haunting of Hill House creator Mike Flanagan, arrives this autumn in what will be a sharp tonal departure. After that, Gunn returns to Man of Tomorrow, a direct Superman sequel, which will carry much of the weight of keeping momentum going into the back half of the decade.
One consolation for the studio: an 80-plus sponsor campaign has delivered what Deadline estimates as over $100 million in media value through advertising, retail space and digital impressions — meaning the break-even point may not be as high as the production budget alone suggests.
The film was made on a reported budget of $175 million. If Supergirl finishes its theatrical run in the $300 million range globally, it would technically turn a profit — but it would also set a ceiling of expectation for the DCU that Gunn will need to push through, and quickly.
Full reviews are expected later this week ahead of Friday's release. Whether audiences respond more warmly than early tracking suggests remains to be seen — though if Alcock's performance is as electric as early viewers insist, word of mouth may yet be the film's most powerful asset.
Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow opens in UK cinemas on 26 June.
